OVERNIGHT MODELS CAUSING HURRICANE TROPICAL STORM JOSE CONCERN

OVERNIGHT MODELS CAUSING HURRICANE TROPICAL STORM JOSE CONCERN – Good early morning everyone. A close eye on Tropical Storm Jose has become a little more complicated as the GFS overnight model has trended towards the UK Met and HMON models for a very close approach to the NYC Metro area and Long Island.

Hopefully things will change and we still have plenty of time for that to happen; but it’s important that we play the game again and make sure if you weren’t prepared for tropical season or the Irma scare supply-wise and plan-wise, to do so.

The last advisory on Jose had it moving WNW at 8mph, with 70mph winds, and 85mph gusts. Looking at the satellite, it wouldn’t surprise me if he was either back to hurricane strength soon or will be by the end of today.

Whether Jose does or doesn’t follow this scenario, the estimated ETA near our area or further off would be mid to late Tuesday; so as we try and work out what he’s going to do exactly, realize that the window will be small in terms of when we know and when he might be in the vicinity. This is why it’s important to go over the supplies you should’ve had by now regardless of the existence of Jose or not.

While Jose is no Sandy in sheer size, path, or history, a new moon could complicate matters for coastal areas if he comes too close. On another note, the EURO still brings Jose in rather close, but just far enough away to be less of a concern aside from big surf, higher than normal tides, and maybe some rain bands/stiff breeze. High tides in the area on Tuesday are between 7-8 a.m. and 7:30-8:30 p.m., so timing would be important with a fast moving system, higher high tides, and the lower low tides that come with a new moon.

Let’s hope the morning GFS run snaps back to a better reality and follows more of a current, EURO-type scenario. At the same time though, we must follow the trends and lay out all of the possibilities for safety’s sake. This includes a methodical, responsible approach, and an eye on every minute change in steering mechanisms throughout the upcoming weekend.

If it looks like Jose will just slip by, we will call it. If it looks like Jose is going to affect us, we will call it; but it’s not time to make the call either way at this moment.