Categories: angry benbronxbrooklyndamaging windsderechoflash floodingGFS ModelhailLow PressuremanhattanNAM modelnew york cityqueensSevere Stormssquall linestorm surgethunderstormsweekend

NYC SQUALL LINE LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE

NYC SQUALL LINE LARGE SCALE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE – Good morning everyone. We have a very busy day today watching for the development of an intense and long line of thunderstorms that could sweep through the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, including New York City and even coastal areas.

Our very warm air bubbling back and forth from a ridge set up to our south, will give is a brief show today, but we’ll pay the price as a vigorous cold front and a coinciding wave of energy drapes back down to bring in cooler air overnight and tomorrow. This will set us up for the possibility of our first true, and possibly damaging chance of widespread, severe thunderstorms for the season.

Ahead of the cold front a squall line may develop, (possibly even reaching Derecho status in some areas) giving us a specific type of thunderstorm-related weather condition to look out for. Starting this afternoon, we will be watching for the development of this fast moving line swooping in from the west/northwest. There will be no “primary threat” today, but rather a wide-ranging threat.

Look for morning fog, hanging on a little bit longer in immediate coastal areas; then clouds and sun, humid, and highs in the mid 80’s. Expect cooler temps in the 70’s at the coast, and possibly upper 80’s in the more notoriously warmer spots. By mid-afternoon, we’ll be watching for the development of this line. Timing will range from late afternoon to evening for the arrival. The later the better for us in terms of trying to reduce the threat, but even so, if they’re strong enough, they could survive the trip intact enough to create some headaches just after sunset.

With a squall line possible in the region, damaging straight-line winds, large hail, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, torrential rain, flash flooding, and isolated tornadoes are possible. If the line goes rogue and Derecho forms in part of this line, those affected would see similar conditions to a squall line, but much more prolonged and damage could be widespread. These types of weather systems are very rare, so while the chances are slim, we will have to keep a close eye out on the development of one.

Stay tuned as we will update on the development of our line of thunderstorms and fine tune the timing/severity of it.