NYC SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUESTIONABLE EVEN THOUGH STORMS FIRE UP

NYC SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUESTIONABLE EVEN THOUGH STORMS FIRE UP

NYC SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUESTIONABLE EVEN THOUGH STORMS FIRE UP

NYC SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS QUESTIONABLE EVEN THOUGH STORMS FIRE UP – Good afternoon everyone! The sun is finally starting to peak out a little bit as immediate coastal areas still fight with low clouds and patchy dense fog. The key ingredients are here to touch off some thunderstorms, but a few extra ingredients may hinder the development of severe weather in the immediate area, especially coastal areas. There’s a pretty good chance that the marine layer and seabreeze weaken anything that reaches here. That doesn’t mean we won’t see storms and/or torrential rain, but they might not be severe once they reach here.

THREE AREAS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT

A cold front is transiting the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, marching east at a pretty good clip now. There are three areas of energy we’re looking at. One is going well to our north, one moving through western Pennsylvania, and a weak area popping off some popcorn-type, brief heavy showers and thundershowers ahead of everything else in New Jersey.

WEAK AREA OF ENERGY IN THE NYC METRO AREA

Well ahead of the cold front itself, an area of instability has formed just west of NYC and drifting east. Individual popcorn type shower cells and a few rumbles of thunder are moving northeast. This is why I’m forecasting that at this point forward, anything can pop up until the main line enters the picture.

As far as the best chance for severe weather, eastern PA, central and NW NJ, and the Hudson Valley will be in the bullseye once that area of energy from western PA matures and expands. With it, we could see damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail, and isolated tornadoes. For us, we will wait and see how this line progress and update as needed.

After everything passes, we’ll have a hot (upper 80’s to 90), increasingly dry day tomorrow, then pleasant conditions and seasonable temps for Monday and Independence Day on Tuesday. Low humidity and seasonable temps will continue throughout the week until heat and humidity returns for Friday.

 

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