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NYC LONG RANGE FORECAST AUGUST 2018

NYC LONG RANGE FORECAST AUGUST 2018 – Good morning everyone! We have one more nice and comfortable one today before we start our trek to pivot back towards tropical and thundery/showery weather. Then as we head into the first week of August, we begin to look at the prospects of very warm to hot and humid conditions.

First up is our nice day. Look for sun and clouds, highs a seasonable and comfortable low to mid 80’s. The humidity will be there as it is late July, but it’ll be relatively low compared to last week. Clouds begin to increase as the day wears on though with a weak system approaching from the west.

Much like last week, low pressure will head in from the Ohio Valley and die out, leaving troughy conditions in our area for an extended amount of time. However, this pattern looks much weaker and the precip will be more sparse, especially along the immediate east coast. The biggest concern will be central Pennsylvania, where the precip may concentrate again and the ground is oversaturated; causing major flooding concerns.

So for tomorrow, look for morning patchy fog, then mostly cloudy with the slight chance of showers and storms from early afternoon onward. East winds will hold temps down and in the low 80’s for the time being.

For Wednesday, low pressure is gone but energy remains behind; leaving clouds and the chance of showers and storms at any point in the day. Just like last week, no washouts, high humidity, muggy, and mid 80’s for most of the area with a stiff southerly breeze.

As of now, Thursday looks like our best shot to see some showers and storms. Again, no washouts, but as the trough nears it could act like a pseudo cold front and help pump warmer air into the area. We’ll keep a close eye on Thursday, but as of this moment look for mostly cloudy skies again, chance of thunderstorms, and highs an oppressive upper 80’s. On Friday, the trough seems to begin to fizzle out, but energy still over us could spark off a few tropical showers and storms. Clouds remain as does the humidity, highs in the mid to upper 80’s.

The weekend remains interesting with the prospect of some very warm to hot weather. For the moment, Saturday looks to be the “cooler” day with upper 80’s, muggy conditions, and a pop-up storm possible. Then on Sunday, we could be looking at upper 80’s to low 90’s and oppressive humidity.

It’s way too early to use the word “heatwave”, but as stated a few days ago, the potential is there. Everything hangs on cloud cover and precip, something we can’t pinpoint from his far out and this type of pattern. However, we have a good shot at starting next week in the low 90’s but have to see how long we can hold onto it and how high we go. We could string together a few hot ones, then a very brief 1 day break, then a few hot ones again. This would not constitute a heatwave, but if we don’t get that break, it might be if the temps are high enough. Tricky? Yes. So I’ll just leave it out there and know, heatwave or not, be prepared for a few hot ones.

As far as the tropics are concerned, things are extremely quiet for now and nothing is expected in the immediate future. Normally, this is the time of year when we celebrate how quiet things are and get hopeful they remain that way, then things really start to ramp up in the next few weeks. So while I haven’t mentioned the tropics all season, I’m always looking out in the corner of my eye.

For the marine forecast, today and tomorrow morning are looking like your best days. After that, stay in the bay, close to port, and keep an eye on the sky, the radar, and your NOAA bulletins on VHF.