NOREASTER FOUR NYC SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASES QUESTIONS REMAIN

NOREASTER FOUR NYC SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASES QUESTIONS REMAIN

NOREASTER FOUR NYC SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASES QUESTIONS REMAIN

NOREASTER FOUR NYC SNOW POTENTIAL INCREASES QUESTIONS REMAIN – Good morning everyone. The idea of us being on the northern fringe of yet another Nor’easter continues to hold in my book, but complications are abound as we try and figure out where that northern fringe shuts off, who sees accumulating snow, and who sees not one flake in the air.

As stated yesterday and the days prior, models don’t do well deciphering double-barrel low pressure systems and it never works out the way they predicted. In my entire life, I’ve seen 1 work out in which we received two equally strong hits of rain. Yes rain, it wasn’t even a snowstorm. My gut feeling came through again as the first low pressure associated with this mish-mosh of energy will go out to sea quietly after bringing some rain, mix, and wet snow to the mid-atlantic region and southern NJ.

The second one is what we need to keep our eye on. This one will be stronger, have a wider field of precip, stronger winds, colder air, and a more northerly track associated with it. For the Mid-Atlantic region, somebody has the potential to get nailed hard on this one IF the snow can get sticking so that the rest of what’s falling from the sky can accumulate. Areas of SE Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and even southern NJ,  have a good shot at seeing Winter Storm Warning criteria snowfall.   

Experimental Snow Map

For us, the story is different and the chance of snowfall is going to be a close call. Where that northern edge of precip sets up will be crucial for our area. In fact, it’s very possible that cutoff will be so extreme and so close to the area, it could cut parts of NYC and Long Island in half. For this reason, I have low confidence in my snow map as of now. Bust potential is very high for the NYC metro area as of this moment, and that northern fringe will be a key player as far as who sees what, if anything at all.

As far as sticking is concerned, this one has the potential to stick a little better than the previous system. With a potential late night Tuesday start and lows at or just below freezing, a moderate snow could put down a good layer to help the rest accumulate, especially on colder surfaces such as cars, grass, tree branches, and secondary roads.

So if we find ourselves within this northern fringe, look for a Tuesday night start at or around midnight, then continuing into Wednesday.  Stay tuned as we stay on top of our potential snowstorm. If things continue to trend this way, look for Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories to pop up real soon.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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