MODELS CONTINUE IRMA EAST COAST LANDFALL

MODELS CONTINUE IRMA EAST COAST LANDFALL

MODELS CONTINUE IRMA EAST COAST LANDFALL

MODELS CONTINUE IRMA EAST COAST LANDFALL – Good morning everyone. After a wacky day yesterday with computers models all over the place, this morning gives us a better understanding of what may happen as far as Hurricane Irma. Both the GFS and Euro are trending towards a landfall for somewhere between the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast coast. It’s important to continue to remember that we are still a ways out and things may change. However, the window is getting smaller to prepare as the hype from the media will start to make supplies harder and more expensive to come by.

Until the forecast locks in and models settle down, the New York City area is not out of the woods for a couple of reasons. Obviously first and foremost, Irma is still very far away and models can and will change until a few days out. Second, and for example, if Irma came into Chesapeake Bay area at a Category 3 or higher strength, then inland westward, NYC would still see some ramifications. A landfall like that would give New York City tropical storm force winds, heavy banding rains with possible tornadic activity in squalls, possibly a 4-8ft storm tide, beach erosion, extremely high surf, and 20-40ft seas offshore.

The same would go with the Euro’s idea of a landfall near North Carolina, then bringing it up the coast well inland. Obviously wherever it makes landfall would be devastated, but areas east and well north of the center would see tropical storm force winds with hurricane force gusts, torrential rain, and tornadic activity. This scenario would give us a much smaller storm tide if any, but we would get more rain and higher winds in the NYC area.

We continue to hope that Irma goes out to sea, and we continue to watch for any possible changes. However, as of now, the chance of a landfall is increasing, while the chance of Irma going out to sea is diminishing. The idea is not dead, but it’s diminishing. So it’s important to stay tuned and continue to watch for the tweaks in the forecast as we narrow down who’s at the highest risk, and who may see some effects even without a direct hit.

As far as our local, immediate weather, things will be slow to clear out today, with cloudy skies, morning rain, and highs near 70 with a damp east wind. Tonight we begin to dry out and clear up, which will help usher in a sunny and warm Labor Day with low to mid 80’s.

 

 

 

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