IRMA REMAINS INDECISIVE POST BAHAMA RUN

IRMA REMAINS INDECISIVE POST BAHAMA RUN

IRMA REMAINS INDECISIVE POST BAHAMA RUN

IRMA REMAINS INDECISIVE POST BAHAMA RUN – Good morning everyone. The saga continues as certain weather models did their typical late evening shenanigans yesterday. This morning, things retuned back to reality, but now with the EURO and GFS in close agreement.

While models did converge, it doesn’t mean they won’t diverge later, which is why everyone from the west coast of Florida, to the Keys, the east coast of Florida, the southeast coast, and even parts of the mid-Atlantic need to continue to pay close attention.

Here are the facts – Hurricane Irma remains a Category 5 hurricane, with 185mph sustained winds and 225mph gusts. As far as wind speed, this makes it tied for 2nd place with 3 other hurricanes for most powerful in recorded meteorological history in the Atlantic Basin. As of now, Hurricane Allen remains king with 190mph sustained. What you’re watching is not only the awesome fury of nature unfold, but also the upper physical limits of what Earth is capable of cyclone-wise.

Irma’s movement is WNW at 16mph and it’s closing in on the British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. It should begin to reach the outer Bahamas by evening tomorrow, then midway through by Friday evening, setting it on a course towards Florida. At this point, we can say with certainty that Irma will make a turn northward at some point, the question is when and where.

If you take all of the model runs as of this very moment and take the average, they have Irma brushing the southeast coast of Florida, then turning northward and making a run towards Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. For Florida and this particular model run, a difference of 20-30 miles east or west could make a tremendous difference between “just” hurricane force winds, and major/catastrophic hurricane force winds. Regardless of that margin of error, the immediate coast would still be battered with a damaging storm surge and high waves if the eyewall were to remain 20-30 miles offshore.

This is why Florida needs to continue to prepare. Again, we are still at the point in which the track can change and make a difference in a positive or very negative manner, so everyone within the margin of error in terms of projected track, need to be prepare, have supplies, and have a plan. Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina need to start doing the same and treat Irma as a much stronger version of last year’s Matthew.

As things progress, some windows are closing and others remain open a crack; but at this point, in order for one area to be spared, would mean another will take a tremendous hit barring any miracle 1% chance. Continue to prepare and we will update as everything continues to evolve. Do not take Hurricane Irma lightly if you live anywhere in Florida or the Southeast Coast.

Locally here in the New York City area, we’ll have clouds and sun, with scattered rain throughout the day; highs in the upper 70’s and humid. Clouds remain tomorrow and the slight chance of a shower, low to mid 70’s. Friday, we slowly begin to clear out and low 70’s will continue. Saturday and Sunday look beautiful and seasonably cool, sunny and breezy, highs in the low 70’s.

 

 

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