HURRICANE JOSE IMMEDIATE DESTINY LOCKED MARIA HURRICANE BOUND

HURRICANE JOSE IMMEDIATE DESTINY LOCKED MARIA HURRICANE BOUND – Good morning everyone. Aside from Jose’s move after brushing the extreme southeast coast of New England, his destiny is all set and we pretty much know how our mid-week will go tropical-wise.

As of this moment, Jose continues his 80mph strength, 95 mph gusts, and his on his trek north at 8mph. This path will continue for next few days before he finds himself off of the southeast coast of New England and the Forks of Long Island. Tropical Storm force conditions will be possible in these areas, with the strongest of winds/effects felt by Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard as they feel Jose’s outer wind/precip field.

The biggest concern for our area here in New York City and Long Island, will be very rough surf, strong rip currents, beach erosion, and some coastal flooding possible due to his close proximity and the new moon combined. This will NOT be a Sandy situation and the areas of concern in terms of flooding, will be those who see flooding when Nor’easters and moon tides combine.

While models have Jose doing a funky loop after departing well east of Cape Cod, we’re going to set that aside for now and discuss Tropical Storm Maria, which will be Hurricane Maria by the end of the day, or even as I type this. She’s moving along at a good clip to the WNW at almost 15mph and should be affecting the middle Leewards by tomorrow afternoon.

I think this time, Puerto Rico doesn’t get spared like she did with Irma, being hit by Maria as a major hurricane. Do to her more southerly track possible though, it has to be kept on the table that the interaction with the islands could keep her strength “down” and “limit” her to a Category 3 until she emerges somewhere near Hispaniola. If she goes over it, obviously Maria will be severely weakened, however if she merges north or south, she can gather strength and quickly. This all bears watching, but at least in the short term, we know Maria will become a major hurricane and the Leewards/Puerto Rico are at risk.

As for Tropical Storm Lee, there’s not much for Lee to work with right now in terms of good air and he has a long way to go before becoming a concern. It’s possible he could even weaken during his trek across the Atlantic, so we’re going to leave Lee alone for now as we focus on Jose and Maria.

Locally, we’ll have patchy fog this morning, more clouds than sun, and highs a humid upper 70’s to low 80’s. The higher end of that spectrum will only be achieved if we see some extra sun. We could also see a shower or two like we did yesterday in areas. Clouds remain tomorrow as Jose starts to make his approach, with increasing winds out of the northeast and a touch cooler. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70’s.

Tuesday and Tuesday night will be our best shot at some showers as some of Jose’s outer bands may brush the area. We’ll have a stiff NE wind around 20mph, possibly some higher gusts, and highs Tuesday in the low to mid 70’s. Wednesday we’ll warm up a little more with Jose starting to pull away, highs near 80 with clouds still in the area, maybe a shower. Sun returns on Thursday and for a decent 4 day block. Highs will be in the upper 70’s to low 80’s Thursday through Sunday with sunny skies and pleasant conditions.