HURRICANE JOSE CLOSE PATH CONTINUES EFFECTS BEING FELT

HURRICANE JOSE CLOSE PATH CONTINUES EFFECTS BEING FELT – Good morning everyone. Hurricane Jose continues on his path and there are no big changes at this point nor are any expected.

Latest advisories continue to weigh him in at 85mph sustained, but visually he’s going extra-tropical. Convection is now far detached from the center of circulation and dry air is starting to wrap in. Regardless, this does nothing to change our forecast and what to expect locally. Whether Jose maintained hurricane status or becomes post-tropical, the cards are dealt for us to experience parts of Jose in specific ways.

For the New York City area, clouds will continue to increase well ahead of Jose. As with the last 2 days, we’ll have some patchy fog in the morning, then a slight chance of showers throughout the day; highs a humid mid 70’s. The wind begins to pick up slowly tonight out of the northeast and by tomorrow, we’ll have a stiff breeze around 15-20mph with higher gusts, and showers, heavy at times. Winds/gusts will be highest in the heavier showers.

Along the coastal areas of New York City, a coastal flood watch is in effect as is a high surf advisory for south facing beaches. Jose’s close proximity, combined with a new moon, has the potential to cause coastal flooding in flood prone areas. These are areas that experience flooding during Nor’easters when they hit during moon tides. Gerritsen, Broad Channel, areas of Staten Island, and Rockaway, should all take notice and be vigilant. Low lying areas along the immediate shore, including marinas and notorious roads that flood, may experience flooding and could become inaccessible. South facing beaches could also see surf as high as 6-12ft at the apex of Jose’s approach.

As you head east out to Long Island, Jose’s impact will be slightly stronger, especially out towards the Forks of Long Island. Remember, this is primarily a coastal event aside from the rain and stiff wind. Due to less friction near the water, coastal areas will see the higher winds, gusts, and obviously the potential for some flooding in flood prone areas. Inland, winds will be 20-30mph sustained with higher gusts possible, but at the coast, they could see 25-35mph winds and tropical storm force gusts are possible. Also, further east you go, the stronger the winds may be; and the more rain. Tack on another 5-10mph and higher gusts possible out at the Forks; areas such as Orient and Montauk, plus the potential for 3-6″ of rain depending on how close the heaviest rain bands get.

As with New York City, coastal flooding is possible on Long Island due to the new moon. Areas prone to flooding during Nor’easters and a moon tide, such as – Freeport, Baldwin, specific areas of Long Beach/Island Park, areas along the Great South Bay, and even north shore areas such as Bayville, need to watch this closely and know that if your area experiences flooding easily, take action to protect your property if possible. Road closures will also be possible at high tide, especially low lying areas such as the Meadowbrook Parkway south of Merrick Rd. , so plan accordingly and use caution.

Again, this is not like Hurricane Sandy and there won’t be widespread catastrophic damage due to storm surge, but light to moderate property damage is certainly possible in specific areas. After Jose, things begin to clear out on Thursday, and we should have a nice block of sunny skies and near 80 temps into the weekend.

In other news, Hurricane Maria will become a Category 2 storm today and has her eyes set on Puerto Rico. Barring any miracle, Puerto Rico looks to take a direct hit of what will probably be a Category 4 storm. After Jose, we will focus on her due to the potential for Maria to be lurking near the Bahamas by the weekend.